Our Tourism Future Ahead of Climate Developments: Rethinking Tourism for What Comes Next

Climate change is already reshaping the tourism landscape - influencing visitor demand, seasonality, operating conditions and long‑term competitiveness. For tourism operators and destinations alike, the challenge is no longer simply understanding the risk. It is knowing how to respond in ways that build resilience, protect value, and create new advantage.

In this keynote, Nikolaos Gkolfinopoulos, Head of Tourism at ICF, explores how climate trends are already translating into real-world impacts for tourism businesses, and what this means in practical terms for decision‑making today.

Drawing on international experience at the intersection of tourism and climate adaptation, the session shows how destinations and operators are moving beyond awareness towards action.

Importantly, this is not a story of risk alone. While climate impacts are real, tourism today has access to better data, improved climate intelligence, and clearer adaptation frameworks than ever before. This means change can be anticipated, priorities can be set with confidence, and responses can be phased and strategic rather than reactive.

The focus is not on long‑term scenarios, but on what is already changing and how those shifts will increasingly affect tourism over the next 5–10 years.

The keynote will highlight how adaptation, when done well, is not a defensive response, but a pathway to resilience, competitiveness and innovation. The session concludes with practical, actionable insights on where to start, what to prioritise, and how coordinated destination‑level action can help tourism businesses adapt early and stay ahead of the curve.

About Nikolaos - Head of Tourism, ICF

Nikolaos Gkolfinopoulos is Head of Tourism at ICF, with over a decade of international experience supporting governments, destinations, and tourism organisations on tourism strategy, diagnostics, and implementation. His work combines tourism sustainability and climate adaptation with marketing and positioning assessments, tourism intelligence systems, destination diagnostics, and strategic orientation for leadership, helping decision‑makers navigate complexity and translate strategy into action.

At ICF, Nikolaos leads the firm’s tourism practice, working at the interface of policy, data, and delivery, with a strong emphasis on community inclusion, environmental stewardship, and institutional capacity. Prior to joining ICF, he worked in Australia and spent seven years at UN Tourism, where he was appointed Senior Project Specialist and contributed to tourism initiatives supported by governments and international donors.

Through his work, Nikolaos contributes practical perspectives to international discussions on the future of tourism, grounded in evidence, implementation experience, and close collaboration with public and private stakeholders. Nikolaos is part of the UN Tourism Panel of Experts advising the World Tourism Barometer. He holds a Master’s degree in International Sustainable Tourism Management and has lived and worked in Greece, Australia, and Spain.